Monday, February 28, 2011

Consumer and Business Spending to Spur Expanding U.S. Economy

A newly resilient economy is poised to expand this year at its fastest pace since 2003, thanks in part to brisk spending by consumers and businesses.

To be sure, the economy faces substantial challenges, including high foreclosure rates, rising commodity prices, strained state and local governments as well as the risk that financial tremors in Europe and geopolitical ones in Egypt could cut into growth. And despite the optimistic GDP forecasts, economists expect the unemployment rate will end the year at 8.6%—below January's 9%, but still high by historical standards.

Since late last summer, the economy appears to have strengthened considerably. The economists put the risk of a return to recession at 12%, down from 22% in September.

The headwinds to expansion appear to be subsiding. A majority of economists—32 of 46 who answered the question—say that rising commodity prices are due to supply-and-demand issues stemming from world-wide growth, not bubbles blown by monetary or fiscal policy. On average, they say oil prices would need to jump to $127 a barrel—well above current levels—to bring down growth. Meanwhile, nine of 10 say the turmoil in Egypt hasn't substantially altered their outlook.

While cuts by state and local governments are likely to subtract from growth in 2011, the economists don't expect the drag to be strong enough to derail the recovery. On average, they expect the sector to trim just 0.3 percentage point from economic growth over the year.

Having seen the global economy so far weather Europe's financial crisis, companies are no longer as worried about the risk it poses. They are also far less worried about tax and regulatory issues, as the White House has signaled a more conciliatory tone toward business.

"Every step in the last three months from the Obama administration looks like they're courting the corporate sector," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ethan Harris.

About the Survey

The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well their forecasts have fared. For prior installments of the surveys, see: WSJ.com/Economist.
Businesses appear more confident about spending on new equipment and, more important, new hiring. Although the January employment report showed little job growth, economists have largely discounted that weakness as the result of winter weather. Business surveys paint a brighter picture; another encouraging sign is the number of applications for initial unemployment claims each week, which has dropped to its lowest level since mid 2008.
[OUTLOOK]
Surveys show that consumers remain deeply pessimistic but less than during the recession. However, the recent pace of retail sales suggests that consumers' attitudes are sunnier when they are at the mall than when talking to pollsters, said Chris Varvares, an economist at Macroeconomic Advisers. He reckons that although unemployment is high, people with jobs are no longer as worried that they will be next in line to be laid off. That makes them more willing to make purchases they postponed during the downturn.
At the same time, Federal Reserve data show that credit-card borrowing posted its first gain in two years at the end of 2010, indicating consumers were more willing to spend. In the fourth quarter, consumer spending on durable goods—long-lasting items like cars and washing machines—rose at a 21.6% annual rate. It was the biggest gain since the fourth-quarter 2001 spending surge that followed the Sept. 11 attacks.
"That's an indicator of a significant release of pent-up demand that we think will have staying power into 2011," Mr. Varvares said.
The economists also don't expect the Fed to raise rates any time soon. On average, they forecast inflation will remain near 2% through the end of 2011, which combined with a continued high jobless rate, likely leaves the central bank on the sidelines. Among economists who answered the question, 60% say they don't expect the Fed to raise rates this year.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Mazuma Capital Partners: Great News on the Lease Accounting Front- Accounti...

Mazuma Capital Partners: Great News on the Lease Accounting Front- Accounti...: "Article- International Finance News Within the past few days, the accounting standard setters have made a series of major concessions on th..."

Great News on the Lease Accounting Front- Accounting boards move to retain lease classification



Within the past few days, the accounting standard setters have made a series of major concessions on their proposed new rules for leasing. Following the abandonment of the plan to force lessees and lessors to account for lease renewal options (see AFI report, 17 February), the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and the US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) have proposed major changes affecting lessees' profit and loss (P&L) accounting.
Further changes are proposed on accounting for variable rentals, and the rules for identifying a lease.
The most significant change from last year's exposure draft (ED) proposals is to retain some form of lease classification – not dissimilar to the current distinction between finance and operating leases – for both lessee and lessor accounting.
P&L for lessees
After initially setting out to remove the distinction between finance and operating leases, the Boards have now accepted that under the new rules there will still be essentially two types of lease.
They remain committed to forcing all leases on to the lessee's balance sheet. However, for a category of leases described in a staff report as “other-then-finance leases”, comparable with operating leases under current rules, they now propose to allow lessees to report rental expense on a straight-line basis over the lease period (under a typical contract with level rentals).
That will match the current P&L rules for operating leases. It contrasts with the front-loaded expense rules that were proposed in the ED for all leases, and are already required for finance leases.
The front loading of expense, where applicable, results from splitting the rental cost into interest and amortization. The interest is on a front loaded profile, declining in line with the outstanding balance sheet value of the liability. Amortization is normally on a straight line basis, consistent with depreciation of assets owned by the reporting entity, but the combined expense is still front loaded because of the interest profile.
That kind of accounting will not now be required for most operating leases. This represents a success for lobbying by the global leasing industry, and by lessees who would have been directly affected by the change.
The Boards' staff report prior to their latest decision cited a typical comment by one lessee respondent to the ED, energy group TransCanada: “For lessors, the Boards have proposed different accounting approaches ... based on [the extent of] retention of significant risks and rewards [from use of the asset] ... [We] believe that different accounting approaches for other than financing leases should equally apply for lessees.”
In fact that respondent, like many others making a similar point, was arguing against the capitalization of operating leases. Some others, however, including a number of US equipment lessors, felt that the front loading of expense would be a more significant problem for lessees than capitalization in itself. Their concerns now appear to have been largely met.
The staff paper also reported support for straight line lessee expense profiles among account users such as corporate analysts. These did not respond to the ED in large numbers, but were consulted later by the Boards.
The report noted: “Some [accounts] users prefer for some leases the current straight line [P&L] recognition pattern ... Most [analysts] for today's operating leases ... do not adjust the straight line  ... pattern presented in accordance with current [accounting rules]. Other users make adjustments only to reflect operating leases on the balance sheet but do not make any corresponding [P&L] adjustments.”
Drawing the line
Again in line with a staff recommendation, the Boards decided not to draw the lease-classification line entirely on residual value (RV) type considerations as under existing rules.
Instead they provisionally propose to base it on a range of criteria. In addition to RV, and closely related factors – i.e. the lease term in relation to the remaining asset life, and potential ownership transfer to the lessee - these will include:
  • whether rentals are set by reference to a fixed return on the lessor's investment, or are benchmarked against market rents;
  • whether the asset is specialized or customized for the lessee;
  • whether the asset was available to be purchased instead of being leased;
  • whether the contract contains significant embedded services not separable from the lease component;
  • whether rentals are based on usage or performance of the asset.
It was agreed that these proposed criteria will be discussed in an “outreach” process with selected parties including respondents to the ED, and then brought back to the Boards for final decisions.
Lessor side implications
The implications of this decision for lessor accounting are to some extent still ambiguous. In accordance with a procedural decision last month, the Boards will not be focusing on the overall models for lessor accounting just yet. They will return to it when further progress has been made with issues affecting both lessees and lessors, and with other current convergence projects that have some interface with the leasing rules.
However, the staff report on “other-than-finance” leases assumed that the split model would apply to lessors as well as lessees. The proposed classification criteria are largely the same as those proposed in the ED for the hybrid lessor model.
The latest decisions reinforce the principle of a hybrid model for lessors, though without entirely resolving the details of the rules on either side of the finance “other-than-finance” line.
The Boards' discussion of lease classification at the latest meeting was almost entirely focused on the lessee side. However, one influential IASB member Warren McGregor indicated that his support for a continued principle of binary lease classification on the lessee side was conditional on eventual symmetry with the lessor side
It would seem likely that for contracts falling on the finance side of the new dividing line, lessors will be made subject to the partial de-recognition accounting method as proposed in the ED.
For those similar to current operating leases, however, it now seems likely that lessors would continue with current operating lease accounting rules, rather than the more complex “performance obligation” model in the ED. The staff paper envisaged that “an other-than-finance lease [would be] characterized by straight line ... income [recognition] consistent with today's ... operating lease accounting.”
Bargain purchase options
In spite of the decision to retain a binary model for lease accounting within the new standard, the Boards have not as yet changed their decision to scope out from that standard what the ED described as “in-substance purchases”. These are principally contracts with bargain purchase options (BPOs), such as hire purchase (HP) deals in the UK.
The Boards are due to consider feedback from the ED on this and other scoping issues at a later date. BPOs are accounted for as finance leases under current rules. However, some Board members at the latest meeting said that they felt that BPO contracts should remain scoped out, to be covered instead by the separate current IASB/ FASB convergence standard on Revenue Recognition.
If that remains the decision, the intended substantive accounting for BPO contracts by lessees and lessors would remain similar to that for finance leases. However, these rules would be found in a separate standard, probably with no guidance specific to the contracts.
Contingent rentals
Again following a staff recommendation, and in response to critical reactions from respondents, the Boards have tentatively agreed to simplify the ED proposals on accounting for contingent rentals. This includes rental variations based on asset usage volume, such as mileage payments in vehicle leases.
The ED proposed that where leases have variable rentals, lessees should account for them on a probability-weighted expected outcome basis. Lessors would have been required to do the same for their lease receivables, though only where the variations could be reliably estimated.
However, the Boards now propose that the initial recognition of contingent rentals should take account of only indexed-based variations, such as those based on market interest rates or a price index, plus any other contingent rentals that are “reasonably certain” to be incurred. This is subject to further outreach consultations to ensure that the “reasonably certain” criteria will be workable in practice.
The Boards also agreed that the initial measurement of index-linked rentals should be based on prevailing rates at the inception of the lease. This replaces an ED proposal to use forward rates where readily available.
The rules for reassessing contingent rentals at subsequent reporting dates will be considered by the Boards later.
Identifying a lease
The Boards have now made some tentative decisions, subject to outreach consultations, on the question of how to identify the existence of a possible lease embedded within a service contract. This follows consideration of the issue at non-decision-taking meetings in the preceding weeks.
This aspect involves a variety of contract types, some more relevant to mainstream equipment leasing than others. The relevant guidance proposed in the ED was based largely on existing rules.
Following comments in response, however, the Boards now accepted that the guidance needs to go further now that operating leases are going on to lessees' balance sheets. The difference between lease and service accounting becomes more critical as a result.
One issue raised by the Boards' staff was whether a contract, in order to be identified as a lease, should have to involve the availability of a uniquely identifiable asset, or just an asset of a particular specification. A small majority of Board members preferred the potentially broader definition (i.e. an asset of a particular specification).
However, it was agreed that both alternatives should be “field tested” in outreach. The consultations will focus on whether the broader definition would be reasonably easy to apply, and whether the narrower one would create structuring opportunities to avoid lease accounting.
The Boards decided to add a new provision, so as to exclude identifying a lease where an asset is incidental to the provision of a service. This would apply where the asset is specified by the service supplier as a mechanism for providing a contractual service; or alternatively where the asset component of the contract is insignificant compared with the service component in terms of benefit to the customer.
Members considered whether both of those conditions should need to be satisfied in order to avoid having to recognize a lease. However, they decided that one or the other should alone be sufficient.
The Boards also decided that guidance should be given on the possible recognition of an embedded lease of part of a larger asset not solely used by the relevant customer. They decided to go for outreach consultation on two alternative formulations. Under one alternative, only a physically distinct portion of a larger asset would give rise to the identification of a lease (if made available for the customer's use within a service contract). The only example to be given in guidance would be a real estate asset (i.e. a floor within a building).
Under the other alternative, preferred at this stage by a majority of the Boards' members, lease recognition could extend to a physically non-distinct part of an asset, such as part of the capacity of a fibre optic data cable.
Finally, the Boards considered criteria related to control of an asset specified in a contract. The starting point for this (although it was accepted that changes were needed) was the draft ED guidance based on existing rules. Essentially that defines control as either:
  • Having the ability to operate or control physical access to the asset as well as the right to obtain some of its output or utility; or
  • Having the right to obtain “all but an insignificant amount” of the output or utility, if the pricing is such that the customer is paying for the right to use the asset, rather than for the actual extent of use or for the output.
Various alternative definitions of control were considered. The Boards decided to field-test two possible variations through further outreach.
Their preferred version would somewhat reduce the scope of contracts that would fall to be recognized as leases, by aligning the rules with a definition of control in the draft Revenue Recognition standard. This would specify that the customer would obtain control of the asset where it has the right to obtain “substantially all of the potential cash flows from that asset”.
In this variant the customer would not recognize a lease unless it had both the defined right to the benefits of the asset and the ability to direct its use. Some “take or pay” power supply contracts might be excluded.
As an alternative, another variation that would be intended to have broadly the same scope as existing rules, but with a simplified form of words compared with the ED version, will also be filed-tested.
Contracts that clearly include both lease and service elements, but where there may be issues in separating the two components for accounting purposes, have not yet been reconsidered by the Boards since the ED consultation. That aspect will be dealt with later.

ELFA: January New Business Up 24 Percent Over Year

The Equipment Leasing and Finance Association’s Monthly Leasing and Finance Index (MLFI-25) showed overall new business volume for the equipment finance sector in January was $4.2 billion, up 24 percent compared to the same period in 2010.
“After a typical end-of-quarter, end-of-year spike in new business activity, the equipment finance sector seems to be resuming a steady pace of increasing volume,” said ELFA President and CEO William Sutton. “This trend, coupled with a strong outlook by leasing and finance executives about the future of the industry, bodes well for a continued recovery of the sector.”
Credit quality is mixed. Receivables over 30 days increased slightly to 2.8 percent in January from 2.7 percent in December, but declined by 35 percent compared to the same period in 2010. Charge-offs declined significantly, falling to 1 percent from 1.4 percent in December, and also showed improvement over the same period in 2010.
Compared to the year-earlier period, credit standards relaxed as approvals increased to 74 percent in January. And, 56 percent of participating organizations reported submitting more transactions for approval during the month, down from two-thirds of responding organizations in December.
Finally, total headcount for equipment finance companies remained flat for the past three months, and reflected a year-over-year decrease of four percent for January. Supplemental data shows that the construction and trucking sectors once again led the underperforming sectors in January.
Separately, the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation’s Monthly Confidence Index for February is 71.6, a new high since the MCI was launched in May 2009, and an increase from the previous high of 69.7 in January.
The MLFI-25 is the only index that reflects capex, or the volume of commercial equipment financed in the U.S. The MLFI-25 is a financial indicator that complements the durable goods report and other economic indexes, including the Institute for Supply Management Index, which reports economic activity in the manufacturing sector. Together with the MLFI-25 these reports provide a complete view of the status of productive assets in the U.S. economy: equipment produced, acquired and financed.
The latest Monthly Leasing and Finance Index, including methodology and participants is available below and also at http://www.elfaonline.org/ind/research/MLFI/.
 
   

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Fed Tells U.S. Banks to Test Capital For Recession Scenario

The Federal Reserve ordered the 19 largest U.S. banks to test their capital levels against a scenario of renewed recession with unemployment rising above 11 percent, said two people with knowledge of the review.
The banks stress-tested the performance of their loans, securities, earnings, and capital against at least three possible economic outcomes as part of a broader capital-planning exercise. The banks, including some seeking to increase dividends cut during the financial crisis, submitted their plans last month. The Fed will finish its review in March.
“They’re essentially saying, ‘Before you start returning capital to shareholders, let’s make sure banks’ capital bases are strong enough to withstand a double-dip scenario,’ ” said Jonathan Hatcher, a credit strategist specializing in banks at New York-based Jefferies Group Inc. Regulators don’t want to see banks “come crawling back for help

Dodd-Frank Act

The Fed also wants banks to consider how the Dodd-Frank Act overhauling financial oversight might affect earnings, and how they will meet stricter international capital guidelines, according to the November notice. Banks will also have to consider how many faulty mortgages investors may ask them to take back into their portfolios. Standard & Poor’s Corp. estimates mortgage buybacks could cost the industry as much as $60 billion.
The Fed’s adverse economic scenario included a 1.5 percent decline in gross domestic product from the fourth quarter of last year through the end of 2011, said the people, who declined to be named because the Fed hasn’t made the details of the review public. The scenario assumed growth resumes, with output rising 4 percent over the fourth-quarter 2010 level by the end of 2013. Unemployment would peak at more than 11 percent by the first quarter of 2012 and drop back to 9.5 percent by the end of 2013.
Federal Reserve spokeswoman Barbara Hagenbaugh declined to comment on the specifics of the Fed’s parameters.

Growth Outlook

While Fed policy makers want banks to be prepared for a slump, they aren’t predicting one. In January, members of the Federal Open Market Committee forecast growth of 3.4 percent or more annually over the next three years, with the jobless rate falling to 6.8 percent to 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013. Unemployment averaged 9.6 percent in the final three months of 2010.
As part of the most recent capital exam, regulators have made one of the largest data requests in Fed history, outside of normal regulatory reporting, asking banks for information about their securities, loans and other holdings. This will give the Fed the ability to check and even challenge the assumptions banks make about their portfolios.

Financial-Risk Unit

The tests are being overseen by a new financial-risk unit assembled by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Tarullo. Known as the Large Institution Supervision Coordinating Committee, or LISCC, the unit draws on the Fed’s deep bench of economists, quantitative researchers, regulatory experts and forecasters and looks at risks across the financial system. The LISCC last year helped Bernanke respond to an emerging liquidity.

100 Fed Staff

The dividend increases, if they happen, will be one of the most carefully screened payouts in U.S. regulatory history, with more than 100 Fed staff working on the capital analysis of the banks.
Congress is also watching. The Fed should be cautious about allowing banks to reduce their capital through dividends or stock repurchases, House Democrats, including Representative Brad Miller of North Carolina, said in a Feb. 15 letter to Bernanke.
“We applaud your undertaking new stress tests on the banks,” the lawmakers said. “It appears doubtful, however, that the stress tests alone can resolve the uncertainty facing those banks to justify reducing their capital.”
The Fed’s involvement in decisions normally reserved for boards shows how far the Dodd-Frank Act has pushed regulators into corporate governance.
“It is an uneasy balance between regulating an institution and running it,” said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics in Washington, a research firm whose clients include the nations’ biggest banks. The Fed is moving “far more assertively” on bank oversight, she said.

2009 Stress Tests

As with the 2009 stress tests conducted by the Fed during the crisis, one of the goals is to assure that bank capital can support new loans to creditworthy borrowers. Loans and leases of banks in the U.S. contracted at a 10.3 percent annual rate in 2009, a 6.2 percent rate in 2010, and at a 2.6 percent rate in January.
The Fed’s unprecedented exam of the 19 largest lenders in May 2009 concluded that 10 U.S. banks needed to raise an additional $74.6 billion in capital.
Banks were “destroying” value when they repurchased billions of dollars of stock in the years leading up to 2008, only to issue shares later at lower prices after they needed capital amid the crisis, said Jefferies Group’s Hatcher, a former bank examiner for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
“Whether it is liquidity, capital or earnings, banks are on a much better footing than they were a couple of years ago,” said R. Scott Siefers, managing director at Sandler O’Neill & Partners LP in New York, a brokerage and research firm specializing in financial companies. “Still, you can pick your caveat. We are only in the early stages of an earnings recovery on the lending side and the legislative and regulatory framework is still in flux.”
Read entire article at Bloomberg.com

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Economy: Factory Production Increases, Housing Stagnates

Production at U.S. factories climbed in January for a fifth consecutive month, while builders began work on fewer single-family houses, showing the expansion remains driven by manufacturing as housing stagnates.
The Fed’s report also showed total production was unexpectedly restrained by a decline in utilities as milder temperatures curbed demand for heating. Output fell 0.1 percent after a 1.2 percent increase in December.
Mining production, which includes oil drilling, decreased 0.7 percent last month. Utility output fell 1.6 percent after a 4.1 percent increase the prior month.
Automakers are benefiting from rising sales. Output of motor vehicles and parts jumped 3.2 percent in January after rising 0.2 percent a month earlier.
Business Equipment
Production of business equipment rose 0.9 percent after a 1 percent gain. Output of computers and semiconductors rose 0.9 percent after increasing 1.5 percent.
Read entire article at bloomberg.com

Cash Hoards are Shrinking at S&P 500 for the First Time since '09 as Obama Continues to Woo CEOs

According to Bloomberg Corporate America is putting its cash hoard back to work.
In the first decline since mid-2009, Standard & Poor’s 500 companies reduced cash and short-term investments to $2.4 trillion from a record $2.46 trillion, according to data Bloomberg compiled from their most recent quarterly reports. Capital spending increased $22.3 billion, the biggest quarter- to-quarter jump since the end of 2004, to $142.8 billion, the highest level in two years.
Budgets are rising for new plants, distribution centers and stores from S&P bellwethers Cisco Systems Inc., General Electric Co. and Coca-Cola Co. While some of the money is being spent abroad, company officials say they are opening the purse strings at home now too. A rebound in economic demand, President Barack Obama’s efforts this year to court business leaders, and Republican gains in Congress have helped build confidence to invest and start adding jobs, executives and investors said.
U.S. companies’ accumulated record cash last year after they slashed spending shut factories and fired workers in 2008 and 2009 to cope with the worst recession since the 1930s.
The dearth of investment took a toll on jobs, with the unemployment rate averaging 9.6 percent in 2010. An increase in spending this year may help lower the rate to 9.2 percent, the average estimate of 87 economists in a Bloomberg poll.

Political Climate

Companies held their cash partly on concern that health- care mandates and increased financial regulation would add costs to their bottom line.  Business confidence has improved and is contributing to some increased risk appetite. The economy last year grew 2.9 percent after shrinking 2.6 percent in 2009.

Profit, Not Presidents

Obama backed a compromise to extend tax breaks that were set to expire in December and a measure to accelerate equipment depreciation. He has countered executives’ criticism with a call to lower corporate taxes, freeze federal spending and review “outdated and unnecessary” regulations. In return, at a Feb. 7 speech to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, he asked companies to invest and create more jobs at home.

 ‘Good for the Economy’

The Bloomberg data examined the most recent quarterly figures reported by S&P 500 companies, regardless of the specific calendar period. About 75 percent have reported so far in the current cycle, and final totals may change. The S&P 500 increased 12.8 percent in 2010, compared with 11 percent for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.